Turkey Erdoğan’s victory

The Turkish lira hit a new low on Monday after the election win of the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a renewed sign of the economic troubles his country is expected to face in the third decade of his rule.

The lira fell against the dollar as Erdoğan pronounced victory. On Monday, investment bank Morgan Stanley predicted that the currency would drop further this year, reaching 26 or even 28 to the dollar more quickly than previously anticipated.

Addressing his supporters from the balcony of the presidential palace in Ankara last Sunday evening, Erdoğan struck a hawkish tone after his victory, taking swipes at his political enemies and committing to continue his unorthodox economic policies before reciting a nationalist poem.

The firebrand Turkish leader was triumphant after a win over his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, fending off an unprecedented second-round election challenge to beat the head of the opposition with 52.16% of the vote to Kılıçdaroğlu’s 47.84%.

“This result will tempt Erdoğan to say he can stay the course,” Soner Cagaptay, who is a biographer of

the Turkish leader and an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said. Cagaptay pointed to Erdoğan’s win with a comfortable margin, the result of a divisive election campaign where both sides deployed misinformation, but one where Erdoğan labelled his opponents as supporters of terrorism, securing a mandate to continue with his rogue foreign policy decisions and unconventional economic policies.

“There was a huge amount of disinformation deployed before the elections,” said Can Semercioğlu of the fact-checking organisation Teyit. “It seems we will keep seeing this disinformation across television and social media.”

Erdoğan’s ability to secure a third term in an increasingly polarised country, against a concerted challenge to his leadership, had previously seemed in doubt. Little more than three months ago, his presidential sedan had weaved between mounds of rubble where grieving citizens hunted for their relatives’ corpses after two powerful earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey.

Across the country, citizens complained of a biting cost of living crisis, one that Erdoğan recently attempted to remedy temporarily by providing free natural gas for a month and increasing the minimum wage a second time shortly before the election.

The poll result, including a win for Erdoğan in regions affected by the earthquakes, showed how he has risen above criticisms often directed at his Justice and Development party (AKP) by the electorate, even if the conditions causing objections to his rule remain.

When pronouncing victory, Erdoğan reiterated promises of free natural gas to his supporters, boasting of Turkey’s economic independence from the International Monetary Fund and repeating his belief that cutting interest rates will reduce, rather than increase, inflation.

“Resolving the problems caused by the increases in prices due to inflation and compensating for the welfare losses will be the most urgent items on the agenda of the upcoming days,” he said, adding: “It is not difficult for us to resolve these problems.”

Erdoğan reiterated a promise to continue a policy of repatriating Syrian refugees, after riding a wave of hardline nationalist sentiment that led former ultranationalist presidential candidate Sinan Oğan to join him to declare victory in Ankara.

He shook hands with Oğan before waving to the crowd using the fourfingered hand gesture associated with the Islamist protest movement against Egyptian president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, one of several former foes who called to congratulate Erdoğan.

The same nationalist sentiment also resulted in the most rightwing parliament in Turkey’s recent history, prompting observers to warn that Erdoğan is likely to increase attacks on the LGBTQ+ community and women. Declaring victory from the top of a bus near his residence in Istanbul, Erdoğan urged supporters to join him in labelling every opposition party “LGBT”.

“The culture wars are where he thrives,” said Cagaptay. “The opposition tried to make this election about the economy, about the aftermath of the earthquakes and corruption. Instead, Erdoğan made it about how he was able to defend Turkey against terrorists, identity politics and polarisation.”

Ziya Meral of the Royal United Services Institute agreed. “The alliance that brought him to power this time was underwritten by a nationalist voter base, but also designed to create a sense of urgency among his supporters that whether it was Kurdish militants, western-oriented liberals or foreign powers, they all wanted to topple Erdoğan with this election.”

He added: “What he’s doing is what we’ve seen cultural conservatives do across eastern Europe and even in Russia, claiming that our way of life is under attack and ‘I’m standing up for traditional values’. After winning on a ticket like this one, a complete 180-degree turn into inclusive and conciliatory language would be surprising.”

Erdoğan missed no opportunity to push his base to direct their ire towards Turkey’s local elections next year where his Justice and Development party will try to reclaim control of the largest urban centres. His nemesis, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, released a message encouraging opposition supporters to fight on. “Everything is beginning anew,” he said.