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What do the zero-Covid protests mean for China?

An extraordinary wave of protests against the Chinese government’s rigid zeroCovid policy spread across multiple cities last weekend, prompted by the death of 10 people in a building fire in Urumqi in Xinjiang. Much of the region had been under lockdown for more than three months, and people blamed the lockdown for the deaths.

Gatherings to protest or to mourn the victims were held in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and other major Chinese cities last Saturday and Sunday, as well as dozens of university campuses, with some police clashes and detentions in Shanghai.

On Monday, Chinese police launched a show of force in an effort to head off further demonstrations. Protesters demanded an end to lockdowns, while some groups decried censorship and called for democracy and an end to the rule of Xi Jinping. Most protests were peaceful, although there were some clashes with police in Shanghai, and protesters in Wuhan pushed over pandemic barriers.

On Monday evening, authorities appeared determined to ensure there was no repeat. In Shanghai and Beijing, police could be seen on Tuesday morning still patrolling areas of the cities where some groups on the Telegram social media app had suggested people should gather again. Their presence on Monday evening and throughout the night ensured no more gatherings took place.

There were reports of police asking people for their phones to check if they had virtual private networks (VPNs) and Telegram, which was used by weekend protesters. VPNs are illegal for most people in China, while Telegram is blocked from China’s internet.

In Shanghai, authorities barricaded a street where protesters had gathered for two successive nights. Edward Lawrence, a BBC journalist who was allegedly detained and beaten by police on Sunday, filmed bystanders having their photos forcibly deleted by police on Monday. Some small actions were held, according to observers sharing videos and photos online. According to a Twitter account that has been sharing protest material in recent days, a small group of people holding up blank paper sheets in Kunming were later taken away by police.

The extraordinary acts of civil disobedience – which observers have said are the most significant protests seen in China for decades – have demonstrated a growing frustration and scepticism with the ruling Communist party’s commitment to zero Covid.

A series of incidents related to the enforcement of the policy, including a bus crash that killed 27 people being taken to quarantine, and numerous suicides and other deaths linked to lockdowns and restrictions, have tested people’s tolerance. Last Thursday’s fire appears to have been a final straw for many.

The widespread protests included prolific use of blank sheets of paper to represent the dissent Chinese people are largely unable to safely express. It may also, some Twitter users pointed out, be read as a reference to the deaths in Urumqi; in China white is a colour used at funerals.

Some have dared to put text and symbols on their sheets. One group of protesters printed the Friedmann equation, which governs the expansion of the universe – the equation’s name sounds like the words “Freed man”.

Others were brave enough to chant veiled messages of dissent. In Beijing, protesters demanded “More lockdowns” and “I want to do Covid tests”.

Many protests have heard demands for democracy and rule of law, as well as press freedom and an end to online censorship. There have also been chants echoing the slogans displayed by the Beijing Sitong bridge protester on the eve of October’s Communist party congress political meeting.

In a video showing a crowd that had gathered on Wuyuan Road in Shanghai’s Xuhui district, people cheer and clap as a woman’s voice shouts out: “We want respect, not lies. We want reform, not a cultural revolution. We want a vote, not a leader. We want to be citizens, not slaves.”

A press conference by the national health commission on Tuesday afternoon suggested the government was perhaps taking note of the unrest. In response to questions, one official acknowledged “the problems reported by the people recently”. The official went on to say those problems were not strictly about “the prevention and control of the epidemic itself”, but on issues with implementation at the local level, too-short breaks between lockdowns, and confusion about various rules.

A new vaccination drive for China’s elderly population was also detailed. Officials revealed just 76.6% of people over 80 had received two doses, compared to more than 90% of the general population, and only 65.8% had received a full course of three. The new work plan for “strengthening coronavirus vaccination of the elderly” ordered local authorities to improve vaccine promotion and delivery to the older age groups, who have been far more averse to vaccination than younger generations. However, it also said some individuals would start having to explain why they were refusing.

Low vaccination rates among elderly people are one of the major hurdles to China easing the zero-Covid measures at the heart of the protests.

Chen Daoyin, a political scientist formerly at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said since the protests were uncoordinated and lacked a unified voice, they posed no serious threat to the authorities.

“It might even bolster Xi’s authority in the party,” Chen said. Since protesters have used the 11 November announcement of a partial easing of Covid measures as a justification for their calls for a relaxation and even bolder calls for freedom, this could allow Xi to prove to his opponents that he was right to insist on an iron-fisted zero-Covid approach, he said.

Xi has repeatedly stressed the importance of “political security” and the need of “struggles” against challenges and instability.

“Don’t underestimate the Communist party’s and especially Xi’s determination to guard against ‘colour revolution’,” Chen said.

Online discussion of the protests has been strictly censored, particularly on social media platforms such as Weibo, but information and evidence of the protests were still being shared on more private channels such as WeChat, also monitored by the state.

On Twitter, which is banned in China but has been a key site of reposted protest material, Chineselanguage hashtags were flooded by suspected state actors with pornographic and escort service posts.

Earlier this week, Chinese state media had not mentioned the protests.