US claims Russia plans ‘false-flag’ operation in Ukraine

The US has alleged Russia has positioned saboteurs in Ukraine for a “false flag” operation as a pretext for a Russian attack, which Washington says could begin in the coming month.

The allegations came on the same day as a large-scale cyber-attack on Ukrainian government websites, and amid reports of Russian military hardware on the move heading westwards.

This follows a week of failed diplomacy with abortive talks in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna, which did nothing to defuse the crisis provoked by Russia’s massing of more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders. Moscow has portrayed the crisis as a military threat from Ukraine against Russia, without providing any evidence.

Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said Russia was preparing “an operation designed to look like an attack on ... Russian-speaking people in Ukraine, again as an excuse to go in”.

A US official claimed that social media disinformation had been stepped up saying: “The Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion.”

Social media posts in Russian accusing Ukraine and its western allies of planning attacks appeared at 3,500 a day last month, a 200% increase on November, the official said.

Ukrainian officials said the provocation could take the form of a violent incident at the Russian embassy or consulate, which Moscow could blame on far-right Ukrainian extremists.

Ukraine was last week hit by a massive cyber-attack, which took down several government departments, including the ministry of foreign affairs and the education ministry.

A message left by hackers on a ministry website read: “Ukrainians! … All information about you has become public. Be afraid and expect worse. It’s your past, present and future.”

Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office in Kyiv, said, “practically 90%” of affected websites were back online by mid-afternoon last Friday and Ukraine was working with the US and the UK to confirm who was behind the assault.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko said investigations suggested that “hacker groups associated with the Russian secret services” were responsible. The White House, however, could not confirm that.

Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, and Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, condemned the attacks. Borrell said the EU’s political and security committee and cyber units would meet to decide how to respond and to support Kyiv. He said: “It’s difficult to say [who is behind it]. I can’t blame anybody, as I have no proof. But we can imagine.”

Stoltenberg said Nato and Ukraine would sign an agreement on enhanced cyber cooperation and Kyiv would get access to Nato’s malware information.

Last week, there was more confirmation of Russian forces moving towards Ukraine. The Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab analysed pictures posted on TikTok and other social media, which it said showed Iskander mobile short-range missiles and T-72 tanks being transported westwards from the far east.

The Kremlin has demanded an assurance Ukraine and Georgia will never join Nato. It wants Nato to remove troops and equipment from its member states in eastern Europe, and to return deployment to 1997 levels, before Nato expanded.

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Moscow would not wait indefinitely for a response. “We have run out of patience,” he said. “The west has been driven by hubris and has exacerbated tensions in violation of its obligations and common sense.”

Meanwhile, Moscow said it had detained and charged members of the ransomware group REvil following a US request. In Washington, a US official praised the arrests but separated the issue from tensions on Ukraine, according to Agence France-Presse.

The US embassy in Moscow had no immediate comment. But the move appears to be part of a carrot and stick operation after the latest cyber-attack on Ukraine, designed to wrong-foot the Americans.

Yermak said Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, had proposed a three-way summit with Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.

“We’re still waiting for the reaction to this from the Russian side, but our American partners take our proposal with some interest,” he said.

“If it’s happened, it will be a big tragedy and you understand it will be a big war because … most citizens of Ukraine will fight against aggressors.”

200%

Proportional rise of posts on Russian social media in December accusing Ukraine and allies of planned attacks